Paul Bovi's Panorama Sports Blog
Super Sunday
Props are up along with game selection and game opinion
How to Play Super Bowl Proposition Bets: Bears v Colts
Thursday, January 25, 2007Paul Bovi
For those fortunate enough to hold a much coveted ticket to Super Bowl XVI featuring the Colts and Bears, there will be plenty of variety to be had by paroosing the sands of South Beach. For those seeking variety of a different type, betting options will run into the several hundreds courtesy of what has come to be known as the proposition wager.
Unlike the championship games of yesteryear which were confined to wagering on the game spread and the total, the proliferation of proposition options has turned Super Bowl betting into a virtual smorgasbord that would rival that of a Sunday brunch at the Bellagio
‘Prop’ bets originated in the early 1980’s and provide a wagering menu that ties in to individual players, team performance, and specific events that occur within the game, or in the case of the coin toss or duration of the national anthem, ones immediately preceding it. Variations of the point spread and total are also available. For example, while the Colts have been installed as a 6 ½ to 7 point favorite depending on the locale, one that anticipates an Indianapolis blowout victory could opt to lay more points in exchange for better odds.
In recent years, prop wagers have taken on such a creative flavor, that they now link other sporting events taking place in and around the Super Bowl to players, stats, and events in the big game itself. Last year, one casino went so far as to offer props that pitted players of the then present day Steelers against those of the 1979 team that defeated the Vince Ferragamo led Rams by a score of 31-19.
In a game that will tip off half past noon (EST) on Super Bowl Sunday, the NBA will showcase Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers versus the Detroit Pistons in a battle of teams vying for first place in the Central Division. Count on at least a few props to titillate bettors’ fancies by pitting player stats from that contest versus that which occurs on the turf of Dolphin Stadium later that evening.
As props vary from venue to venue, and are often times created by innovative managers striving to set their book apart from the competition, the number of props that will be available cannot be pinpointed, though it is safe to say that it will easily exceed 500. The sheer size of the prop menu will create betting opportunities, as the more options that the lines makers must address the more prone he is to an oversight or miscalculation.
A classic example of that occurred in Super Bowl XXXVI as an under/over prop for now Colt, and then Ram receiver Ricky Proehl, opened at 14.5 yards, which was inexplicably low based on the numbers which he compiled during the regular season. Proehl played in all 16 regular season games that season and rang up 563 yards, an average of some 35 per contest and more than twice what the over/under opened. Gradually the yardage moved up, eventually closing at 16 ½, as did the ‘money’. By game time, one had to lay 150 to win 100, or 3 to 2, to wager that Proehl would exceed 16 ½ in terms of receiving yards . In the end, Proehl proved to be a bargain at any number. Kurt Warner found the now soon to be 39 year old journeyman 3 times for 71 yards and delivering over bettors some easy cash.
Those rare miscalculations are just that, rare, but there are other keys to enjoying success in proposition wagering.
In addition to being aware of any injuries that may be lingering, understanding the many aspects of a coaches’ game plan is essential. Those factors could influence how a particular player is utilized, for example, in the case of a tight end, whether for blocking purposes, or for running passing routes.
Bears’ tight end Desmond Clark’s offensive role may very well hinge on whether Indy can get pressure on Rex Grossman, as it looms probable that soft spots will emerge in the Colt secondary considering that safeties Antoine Bethea and Bob Sanders have been known to play close to the line of scrimmage to assist with run support. Lovie Smith may of course, decide to dedicate his tight end more for blocking purposes as was the case last year when Pittsburgh’s Heath Miller surprisingly went without a catch in the Steelers’ 21-10 victory over Seattle.
Speaking of Bob Sanders and lingering injuries, those choosing to play ‘over’ on the number of tackles will be venturing into dicey waters as the Colt free safety played in only 4 regular season games this year due to a chronic knee injury. Sanders could be seen limping off the field midway through the 4th quarter of this past Sunday’s victory over the Patriots. Proceed with caution.
Avoid putting yourself in the position of facing elimination on the strength of one play, or you may find yourself taking an unexpected, and possibly a very early cold shower. A few years back, those that chose to go under 15 ½ yards for Deion Branch’s longest pass reception found themselves doing just that, as Tom Brady found the then Patriot receiver for a 16 yard reception on the games 5th play.
Additionally, take note of special circumstances that present opportunity. Often times, injuries influence the averages that go into forming the lines and those factors are sometimes overlooked in the setting the numbers. Special situations are also known to play out as was the case last year with Jerome Bettis, whose impending retirement figured to influence his role in the offense. Those that backed the theory that Steeler coach Bill Cowher would feed him the ball were rewarded as Bettis finished with 43 yards on 14 carries, in each case roughly twice his season average. Both numbers went over the total, although those that wagered that ‘the Bus’ would reach the end zone were frustrated as he was stuffed short of the goal line on a pair of attempts.
If you take your props seriously, and are in it for profit, steer clear of those wagers that are determined by nothing more than luck, the classic example of that being that of the coin toss, unless of course you happen to work for the Psychic Hotline. Other props such as ‘which players will score the first touchdown’, or ‘whether the quarterbacks’ first pass will be completed’ are also based on little more than chance and should be treated accordingly.
Another vital factor of successful proposition wagering is to understand the all of the elements that may affect your wager. In last years’ Championship game, the Steelers grounded the Seahawks by a score of 21-10 which would lead one to believe that Ben Roethlisberger easily out dueled Matt Hasselbeck in terms of passing yardage. Not so.
The Seattle signal caller more than doubled the productivity of Big Ben, who managed only 9 completions in 21 attempts in amassing a mere 123 yards. Hasselback, in a losing effort, generated 273 on 26 of 49. It is common for a losing QB to pass for more yards
than their victorious counterpart, as coaches tend not only sit on leads but often go into prevent defenses, both of which will statistically benefit the signal caller of the team that is trailing.
Finally, as with any betting endeavor, lines vary, and it is always wise to shop around. Many bookmakers, in an attempt to shift the odds in their favor, widen the conventional 20 spread between the favorite and underdog, to 30 cents, and on rare occasions, as high as 40 cents. The latter situation should be avoided at all costs, unless of course you enjoy paying $8 for a toothbrush in the casino gift shop. No thanks.
Good luck to all.
A Dark Day for Sports Bettors
Thursday, January 11, 2007Paul Bovi
It’s a dark day for many sports bettors throughout the land, for the great Oz has spoken, in this case Pinnacle Sports.
Like a roulette dealer that bellows ‘no more bets’, Pinnacle's decision to voluntarily exit the US market abruptly ceases wagering action for thousands of bettors throughout the country. Candy stores meets may be replaced by coffee house sit downs, but rest assured the corner bookmaker is about to be resurrected.
But for many sports bettors, life may never be the same, at least for now. Over the past 5 years, Pinnacle has built its’ reputation as the premier sports book in the world by extending their betting limits to accommodate wagers that were previously unthinkable, along with offering ‘reduced juice’, or what is commonly known in the industry as vigorish. Along with that, Pinnacle’s betting options covered not only the world of sports and a vast array of proposition wagers, but also encompassed events such as the Golden Globes, Dancing with the Stars, and American Idol. You could even wager on the box office take of a movie premier
What happens in Vegas may stay in Vegas, but those bettors that reside in the city of lights do their business elsewhere. As Las Vegas casinos have gone the way of corporate ownership, the sports book is viewed by management along the lines of a loss leader rather than a profit center. From the prospective of adding to the bottom line, a typical sports book generates less than 1/3 of the revenue per square foot as that of the same real estate that is dedicated to slot machines and table games.
With that, the ‘I am doing you a favor attitude’ has taken hold, and the house operates from the prospective of preventing losses in an area of the casino that many of them would just as soon as do away with if they could without alienating their customer base. The presence of a book is a necessary ingredient to the retention and attraction of the green felt player and slot machine junkie, and in the eyes of many senior executives, little more.
The result is that Sin City’s wagering limits have gotten skinnier and the odds have deteriorated sending the sophisticated bettor offshore, where they are actually allowed to place a sizable wager without getting thrown a cross eyed stare over the counter, or have the betting line change as they are counting their money out. Yes, that does happen.
Pinnacle revolutionized the betting world by offering -04 ‘juice’, which broke tradition from the 60 year old format of laying 110 to win 100, or 10 cent ‘vig’. Vegas books, except in rare instances, never tried to compete, preferring instead to exploit the captive nature of their audience that makes their way through town for business or pleasure, or in many cases a little of both.
‘Exploit’ may define the Las Vegas’ attitude with respect to offering odds on a future proposition. A future wager involves betting on a team or person to win a particular event, such as the Super Bowl, World Series, or a Nascar race. While the difference between laying .04 versus laying .10 is quantifiable, those odds offered on a future payoff are not. The hold is transparent unless you happen to be a mathematician or scored 800 on the math portion of your SAT. Las Vegas is well aware of that fact which affords them the opportunity to write their own ticket and post odds that are designed to put the customer at a huge disadvantage
In many cases, the retention factor on a future wager placed in Las Vegas ranges upwards of 40 to 50%. In other words, unlike a horse race in which the retention is regulated by the state, usually at between 16 to 18 percent on a straight wager, the future payoffs are set so that the house reaps a windfall from those patrons who are often looking for an economic rooting interest in their favorite team
Las Vegas may argue that they assume a great deal of risk in offering these types of wagers, thus they are entitled to protect themselves. After all, their case may be that one sizable future bet on an underdog may put them at great degree of risk which in theory is correct, except for that fact that books will limit a wager of this type, and promptly reduce the odds which would effectively dissuade further action on that team. There have been select instances, though rare, in which a casino has left future odds up of a team that has been mathematically eliminated.
Aside from offering -04, holds on future wagers at Pinnacle came in at what could be estimated at 20%, which was extremely fair given industry norms. Like Vegas, action was limited so as to avoid a catastrophic occurrence, as odds were continually reset in accordance with money that came in on a particular team, person, or event.
Sports bettors that have been accustomed to using Pinnacle are today mourning the loss of an industry icon, a direct result of The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006, a bill that made its’ way through Congress late last year, immediately prior to the then forthcoming election recess. It is specifically geared towards prosecuting those responsible for providing ‘designated payment systems’ and/or ‘money transfer systems’, which include providers such as ‘Neteller’, and other mechanisms that facilitate the transfer of funds that promote internet gambling.
Pinnacles’ decision to exit the US market comes on the heels of several recent and well publicized closings of offshore sports books, notably Bet on Sports, who ceased operations after the Department of Justice placed a restraining order against the Costa Rican based company. Those with remaining balances at BOS have, to this point, not been paid, unlike Pinnacle who has given their American clients assurances that their funds are readily available for withdrawal and that any pending plays, including futures bets, will be honored
Well placed sources estimate that of Pinnacle’s approximately 250 million dollars in profits last year, 60% was derived from the US market. Pinnacle’s decision to opt out can only leave one with the distinct impression that the government will be vigilant in the enforcement of the law targeted specifically at eliminating Internet gambling.
All said, the governments’ exertion of pressure on offshore gambling establishments appears to taking place without a back up plan in place. Common sense would have the government licensing a handful of these organizations in allowing them to continue operations while imposing a fee for the granting of that privilege while capturing a percentage of the handle. Bettors will seek out other alternatives in their quest for a fix, and as prohibition has already proved, man will not live without his vices, no matter where he has to go to get it, which in this case will no doubt send us down a path that leads us to those Tuesday morning meetings at the coffee shop.
In the meantime, let the mourning period begin, and may the weekend pass quickly.
It’s a sad day for sports bettors.
Reproduction of this article in whole or part may be used provided credit is given to the author Paul Bovi and/or Paul Bovi/PanormaSports.com
Paul Bovi
Laguna Beach California
Las Vegas Nevada
As seen on PRWeb:
http://prweb.com/releases/2007/1/prweb497041.htm
NBA Advances to 32-19 as Hornets -2 defeat T Wolves
SUPER BOWL PROPOSITION PLAYS WILL BE POSTED FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. WE WILL HAVE A TOTAL OF 6 TO 8, ALL STAR RATED, AND AVAILABLE
